Friday, June 20, 2008

Daily Market Recap 06/20

Options Expiration Day? Futures Expiration Day? - You bet, quadruple witching. Oil opened up 3% on no news. Markets opened down 1% and kept falling. Dow Under 12,000 and looking ugly. Dollar fell through support (73.4) pre-market, and is resting at a new support of 73. Gold up for now. (You hear me Cow?)

Oil - WTF?!?! Despite thinking oil prices would be calm until the 22nd, Oil futures were up 4% this morning on no news. I guess the 22nd is a maybe that was dumb, but...up 3% on the possibility the Saudis will raise supply...a day after china raises costs 17%? Something odd is going on with oil. I don't yet believe Goldman Sachs' greater price = more refiner demand theory and until I understand it I'm not playing it. There is simply a major tug-of-war going on between two sides of the same coin.

Fed leaves window wide open - (Via Bloomberg) "Funds provided through the discount window for commercial banks rose by $223 million to a daily average of $13.4 billion, still below the record $16 billion two weeks ago." While this isn't huge news one way or another, it's just obvious that the solvency problem remains. There is no exit plan by the banks or the fed. When this comes to a head it will probably be ugly in some way.

Interest Rate Hike Chicken - Was won by Mexico who raised key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%. I must apologize I thought for sure it would be someone in Europe. LOL

Ford Rating Downgraded - Gee, thanks for the heads up Moodys! Where were you at $3 gas? Watch for more of these as the "wizards" and "analysts" catch on.

The case of fugitive fund manager Sam Israel takes another turn for the weird as his girlfriend is arrested. (Raise your hand if you didn't see that one coming.) Oh well, "Jail is Painless" Ha Ha Ha

I hope all of you had a successful week. Have a great weekend. I'll be frying a turkey for a friend's b-day. (You didn't know we rolled like that in SoCal huh?)


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